Yes water can back up in a drain and flood out lowest opening, which would be a toilet flange at floor level.
If tub is draining fine, then clog is probably near the toilet, but below floor flange level, and therefore not inside the tank ... judging from your description.
If you are in a house, go outside and see if there is a vent stack on the roof directly above toilet. If so, you can run a snake down from there.
You can also run a snake down through "s" shaped toilet trap and enter the pipe that way.
Another option is to remove the toilet and run snake directly down hole, and then reattach toilet.
Add a comment for more free help.
Also take advantage of fixya phone service.
For a price, expert speaks with you over phone while you work on plumbing or any do-it-yourself project.
Fixya is always less expensive than a service call.
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